Special Projects - Commission 9
Prediction of Real Estate Market Development Using Statistical Methodsby Darina Tauberová, Brno, Czech RepublicThe article deals with the presentation of a possible procedure in predicting the development of real estate market prices. The author analysed possible approaches that appear to be suitable for creating a system approach for predicting real estate prices and the creation of a regression model for the prediction of the development of the real estate market was chosen as most appropriate, namely the creation of a delayed multiple regression model, provided the regression model assumptions are fulfilled. The article is divided to theoretical and practical parts. The theoretical part explains regression models, assumptions of regression models and hypothesis testing. The practical part demonstrates the prediction of the real estate market development. The author of the research is trying to develop the field of real estate valuation, because this branch is one of the very important branches necessary for the state economy as a whole, its stability and influence on the global economy. Quality opinions can minimize market risks, such as the so-called “real estate bubble”. The model is also suitable for use in routine expert practice thanks to the simplicity of calculation without owning any computational programme. Thanks to the created model, experts are able to predict the development of the real estate market. The result is bound to the accuracy of the input data, which can be problematic, especially in cases of an attempt to predict price developments over a longer period of time. The novelty of the overall approach consists in the use of mathematical and statistical methods, which are not used in the ordinary expert practice. The model was set for the real estate market in the Czech Republic, however, based on the detailed procedure described in this article, this model can be used in any other country. Case Studies - Remediation of Brownfield/Contaminated sites
|